IRCCs analysis of Express Entry’s all-program draws has predicted that CRS scores will remain low if the ITAs continue to increase. Since the draws resumed, the number of invitations sent to candidates has only increased to 250 every week. This increase in ITAs has caused lower cut-offs under the Comprehensive Ranking System. However, the CRS scores haven’t been too low and are still considered high only. If we look at the recent Express Entry draw, its CRS score was a minimum of 533 points demanded from the candidates.
The factors determining their score include candidates being younger, having a higher level of work experience, and also possessing bilingual skills. As per Express Entry’s data, candidates having a score of more than 501 already exist in the pool because of the increasing demand. There was a long pause in the draws concerning the Canadian Experience Class and the Federal Skilled Worker Program in September and December 2021, respectively. It is only because of the long haul in the programs that the number of applicants with scores above 501 increased in the Express Entry pool.
The candidate’s profiles under the Express Entry system remain valid for up to at least 12 months.
According to the data as of March 3, 2020, there were approximately 21,900 Express Entry applicants having scores between 400 to 600. The recorded data of the draw conducted on August 3, 2022, had around 66,813 Express Entry candidates having scored within the same range.
As per reports, the latest data suggests around 8,975 candidates with scores between 501 and 600. This scoring range doesn’t have too many candidates if compared to the Express Entry draw of July 20. Yet, the score range is above the July 6 draw.
Although there is a gradual increase in high-scoring candidates, the progress isn’t too fast so it is unable to stop the decline in the CRS standard cut-off.
The decline in CRS cut-off also depends upon the Provincial Nominee Program candidates participating in the pool. The number of PNPs will be decided by the government because they only send the nominations to candidates. Progress in the process also depends on the quickness of the candidates to reply to the invitations they receive through Express Entry. Another factor is the processing time of the province.
The increase of 250 ITAs with each draw has led to a pause in taking more applications from PNP and Express Entry candidates. It is because of this that the CRS score has declined consistently.
Express Entry pool- ITAs and CRS score
| July 6- Draw | July 20-Draw | Aug 3-Draw | |
| ITAs | 1,500 | 1,750 | 2,000 |
| *PNP in the pool (above CRS 601) | 669 | 580 | 640 |
| *CRS 501-600 | 8,773 | 9,101 | 8,975 |
What if the ITAs continue to increase with each draw?
IRCC has been sending an increased number of ITAs and if this situation continues with 250 ITAs per week, it will be a challenge to align with the 5,000 figure that was initially witnessed in 2020. It is predicted that it will take a minimum of 30 weeks to level up with the initial figure which is likely to get through by March 8, 2023.
The average ITAs calculated were 3,700 between the draws of January 8 to March 4, 2020. As estimated, it would take another 20 weeks for IRCC to surpass the average figure, given the current pattern of increasing ITAs in draws.
It is not a compulsion for IRCC to consistently conduct draws once in two weeks, the invitations can be modified according to the situation. The invites sent to candidates are based on IRCC’s ability to keep up with the processing standard for over 80 percent of applicants within six months as well as the multi-year immigration plan.
Summarizing the Immigration Levels Plan for 2022-2024
The number of applicants for Express Entry who are likely to get the invitations by IRCC accounts for around 55,900. These candidates will be a part of the immigration backlog.
The new applicants under Express Entry are likely to fall under the category of the targeted ones, that is, 75,750 candidates for 2023.
If a candidate has an ITA, he will have to submit their response and their applications will take around 6 months to be processed by IRCC.
The target that has been set for 2024 can be compared to the targets in 2021, with an increase in targets up to 111,500.
Understanding the whole process
If you are considering an ITA based on the lower CRS cut-offs, you must keep a few factors in mind.
IRCC doesn’t announce its strategies publicly beforehand. It has the authority to conduct draws and even fix the draw sizes according to its requirements. The sizes of the draws can be based on the immigration levels plan are will be updated by November 1.
CRS scores usually go down with an increase in invitations. But there are other deciding factors such as more PNP candidates or even candidates scoring high under Express Entry, which are likely to impact the CRS scores.
The long pause of 18 months has also caused a huge number of applicants in the pool with scores above 501. IRCC restarted the all-program draws because it had successfully cleared the backlog for a sufficient number of applications.
Candidates can expect their applications to be processed within six months once they get an invitation to apply.
Future plans-IRCC
The deciding factors for candidates are likely to broaden with IRCC planning to conduct draws based on the economic goals of Canada. These economic objectives will be determined through additional factors, such as language competency and occupation. Hence, CRS scores and the program types will not become the only deciding factors for getting ITA’s.
Sean Fraser is also expected to introduce a new plan until September 8 to prioritize the work experience in Canada under economic immigration programs. According to the Mandate Letter, Fraser also needs to focus on the expansion of pathways so that international students along with temporary foreign workers can attain permanent residency status under Express Entry.
These new introductions in no way mean that students will necessarily attain more additional points via Express Entry, Fraser has reiterated.
According to Fraser, these new measures call for massive opportunities for Canada. He stated that upcoming months will provide more clarity on the working process of these immigration pathways.
Even the four major provinces in Canada requested to gain more authority over the selection of economic class immigrants by signing a letter, namely, Manitoba, Alberta, Ontario, and Saskatchewan. The provinces of Saskatchewan and Ontario have also asked for more rights over the selection of immigrants and even the nominations. If their requests are granted, there will be more opportunities for candidates seeking permanent residence through PNP.
