The crux of Express Entry for the rest of 2023 is essential to understand its forthcoming pattern. Before diving into the details of the future of Express Entry patterns, let us look closely at the patterns so far in 2023.
Significant modifications in the way Canada’s Express Entry application management system selects applicants who receive ITAs as of the summer of 2023 are evident.
While Express Entry has become increasingly unpredictable, a few trends that could establish the tone for the rest of the year have started to emerge in recent weeks.
The introduction of category-based selection invites for candidates with particular traits has been the most significant development this year.
Candidates who meet particular requirements for Express Entry fall into one of six categories. One category is for candidates with excellent French language skills. Contrarily, the remaining five are for individuals with job experience in the following fields:
- Transport
- STEM professions
- Healthcare
- Agriculture and Agri-Food
- Trades – Carpenters, Contractors, and Plumbers
According to IRCC, the new categories will enable Canada to bring in more immigrants with expertise working in high-demand areas of the country’s economy. Additionally, they will support the immigration minister’s mission to encourage French-speaking immigrants to settle in minority communities outside of Quebec.
The crux of Express Entry for the rest of 2023
According to The Globe and Mail, IRCC anticipates that between 28% and 31% of Express Entry ITAs will be given to applicants who recently held jobs in specific STEM occupations.
According to the exact estimate, the department will give candidates who speak French between 11 and 15 percent of all Express Entry ITAs.
Healthcare occupations will have 9–12% to persons with experience, trades will send ITAs to 3-4%, and transportation will send just 1% to each of those groups.
To attract people for STEM jobs as part of a new tech talent strategy, IRCC introduced several initiatives. 500 STEM applicants have already received ITAs through category-based Express Entry drawings in 2023.
Given that many H-1B visa holders work in the IT industry, Canada also recently introduced open work permits for individuals in the United States who already have an H-1B specialty visa. Within two days of the program’s July 16 debut, they met the maximum target of 10,000 applications for 2023.
Those who successfully arrive in Canada as temporary residents with an open work permit and develop expertise in the computer industry might have an edge over others when applying for a spot in the Express Entry pool in the future.
Mixed draws
However, not every round of invitations in the future will be category-based. Three successive all-program draws issued ITAs to 3,500 candidates. This has been the case ever since the category-based draws began. Federal Skilled Worker Program, Canadian Experience Class, and FSTP applicants are taken into account in all program draws for the three Express Entry-managed immigration programs. In these draws, a candidate’s entire CRS score determines their fate. Thus, this implies that their employment experience or language proficiency doesn’t decide their score.
IRCC will likely continue Express Entry program-specific draws and invite candidates who receive a PNP nomination.
CRS scores rely on program or category
Certain human capital factors such as job experience, occupation, age, education, and language proficiency are responsible for scoring under the Comprehensive Ranking System. Overall, this system serves to assess Express Entry candidates side by side. So far, the minimal CRS score has fluctuated from a low of 375 when 3,800 French-speaking candidates earned ITAs on July 12 to a high of 791 in a PNP-only draw on February 15.
The CRS scores for all-program draws and category-based selection have significantly differed from the beginning of the invitation rounds with category-based selection. For instance, the highest score achieved so far for category-based ITAs is 486. The lowest all-program draw score, 505, set since the initial category-based selection draws on June 28, is still 19 points higher than this.
It is still preferable for candidates to get their best CRS score, irrespective of the program or category. The IRCC claims it will rank candidates and extend invitations to the top-scoring applicants even in category-based selection draws. A candidate who would be eligible in a category draw might instead receive an invitation to an all-program draw if they have a high CRS score. This depends on which draw type takes place first.
2023 Immigration Levels Plan
The Immigration Levels Plan 2023–2025 sets high goals for the admission of permanent residents. The strategy aims to admit 109,020 new permanent residents to Canada through Express Entry in 2024, with that number growing to 114,000 in 2025.
73,448 Express Entry applicants have already received invitations this year. Hence, IRCC appears to be on the path toward achieving the 82,880 quotas set for 2023. Nevertheless, more Express Entry applicants might receive ITAs in the second half of 2023. As a result, this will fulfill the stricter 2024 requirements. This is owing to the likelihood that those who acquire ITAs now won’t have permission to enter Canada until 2024. It is because of the IRCC service standard that express entry applications must be processed and finalized within six months.
The crux of Express Entry for the rest of 2023 – upcoming Express Entry pattern
The remaining draws in 2023 will likely have a balance of the mixed draw types if the current trends continue. There will be some draws that are all-program or program-specific, with greater minimum CRS scores and fewer ITAs to be given out. Also, other selections will involve category draws with lower CRS scores. The quantity of category-based invitations can change even with a lower minimum CRS.
