Canada’s former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney conveyed a message to Canadians that the country needs more people.
Mulroney is known for increasing the immigration levels three times during his term and wants Canada to expand its population to 100 million people by 2100. In the last week of March, Brian shared this message at a forum organized by the Globe and Mail and Century Initiative (a think tank working for Canada’s prosperity in future).
Former Prime Minister Mulroney proposed ideas to expand Canada’s population, which were already on the Century Initiative’s agenda. It is known that Canada’s current birth rate is insufficient to replenish the population alone. Moreover, without significant levels of immigration, the country’s low birth rate and ageing population will create a lot of financial stress on the working-age population. It is not difficult to back the previous statement, as 9 million baby boomers hit retirement age this decade, and there will critical effects faced by the country’s economy for the same.
As a result, Canada has resorted to high levels of immigration to address these demographic issues. In 2019, immigration contributed to more than 80 per cent of the country’s population growth. Furthermore, during the immigration levels plan for 2021-2023, Canada has set an immigration target of welcoming around 1.2 million newcomers to the country. However, here Century Initiative says that country needs some more preparations.
The Century Initiative report states, “This business-as-usual approach to population growth will not create the economically vibrant, socially generous future Canadians want and expect.”
Why is the population threshold 100 million?
Century Initiative illustrates the world in 2100, when the global population has increased to 11.2 billion, majorly contributed by Asia and Africa. Moreover, in this projected picture of the 2100 world, the US is one of the fastest-developing countries with a population estimate of 450 million people.
In this projected future by Century Initiative, Canada’s population is 49.7 million, making it the world’s 48th most populated nation, down ten places from its current position of 38. The fertility rate remains well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per mother, and immigration rates have remained unchanged. Moreover, this Canada’s population is ageing, and economic growth has slowed to half of what it has been in the previous 50 years.
On the other hand, a projected Canada with a 100 million population by 2100, will be the 27th most populated country, and its economy is expanding at a whole percentage point faster, with an annual GDP growth rate of 2.6 per cent. Furthermore, Canada’s workforce would be younger, resulting in a greater labour force and taxpayer base; also, there is more taxpayer money available to back social programs and infrastructure, as the taxpayer base is broader. In addition, employers will have a larger pool of domestic talent to foster innovation, and entry to capital and foreign markets will be strengthened for businesses.
According to Century Initiative, more densely populated cities would allow for greater access to environmentally sustainable housing and transportation facilities; also, the cultural industry will be vibrant, as well as financially prosperous. Furthermore, Canada with a population of 100 million people will also help country to maintain its global dominance.
Canada should aim for an annual immigration target of 1.25 per cent of its population by 2026
As suggested by the Century Initiative, the population target of 100 million people in Canada by 2100 is achievable. Furthermore, they stated that the current immigration targets (i.e., 1 per cent of the population) are in line with the population threshold. They further suggested that by 2026, Canada should revise the immigration target to 1.25 per cent of its population, which means 500,000 more new immigrants to the country in 2026.
In 2021, Canada is expecting to bring 401,000 newcomers, and in 2023, the number will increase to 421,000 new immigrants. Moreover, Century Initiative suggested that the immigration targets for the years 2024 and 2025 should be 450,000 and 475,000 new admissions, respectively.
Mulroney suggested that a white paper is the next big step
As per the report by the Globe, at the forum hosted in the last week of March, Mulroney suggested the need for a new national policy that would help to expand Canada’s population three times by 2100. Mulroney suggested gaining traction with a white paper to ramp up this idea in the political discussion. A white paper in the Canadian legislature is a proposal that, if approved by the public and the government, might radically alter policy.
In the immigration history of Canada, the white paper of 1966 was one of the major documents, which laid the foundation of a points-based system to admit new immigrants. Prior to this amendment, Canada assessed candidates based on a tiered system, in which applicants from the commonwealth countries and the US were prioritized. It occurred at a time when public opinion on civil rights was changing, and Canada was looking to step away from a biased immigration policy. It took a year to put the white paper’s proposals into action. As a result, Canada still follows a points-based immigration system for welcoming newcomers through its economic-class programmes; the Express Entry system is the ideal example here.
The acceptance or rejection of policy amendments proposed in a white paper is radically influenced by public opinion. If the proposal for this new policy moves any further, a white paper on population growth will spark many discussions, including the benefits of immigration in Canada, how Canada can prepare for increased immigration levels, and how Canada can improve its immigration system, which is already reputed as one of the fastest and well-managed immigration systems.
